Review of transcription and translation project------李昆

我们做翻译时，首先要想清楚，我为什么要做这件事，自己的目的是什么。具体到我们公司为客户做翻译而言，我认为是让客户满意我们的服务，以后继续找我们为他做事。怎样让客户满意呢，我认为最本质的不是要让客户叹服我们的翻译水平有多高，而是要去帮助客戶的实现他的目的，如果没有让客户从你的行为中获益，你的翻译水平再高，那在客户眼中都是没有意义的。我觉得，翻译最理想的就是在保留原文所有信息元素（字面意义，深层意义，语气，风格，暗示等）的情况下完美的实现了客户的意愿，当然，这很少有机会实现，现实要求我们根据情况牺牲其中一项，相应的降低其标准，而凸显另一项，这种牺牲和凸显的程度会依情况而变，而我认为，绝大多数情况下实现客户的意愿这一要求是不可牺牲的，除非译者目的和客户的目的发生了偏差（译者出于自身目的有意让客户无法实现目的）或其它极少数情况。

原文的自身的文本价值越高，对保留原文所有信息元素的要求就越高，如年报，它本身就是专业人员花了大量精力做出的一份很严谨的文本，可以说是字斟句酌的，因此我们翻译是对一个词汇的译法的不同选择，对一个句序的改变，可能都会产生不好的影响，使客户的年报针对的受众认为客户不够专业和严谨，对客户产生不好的印象，从而使客户利益受损，所以我们在做年报时，很多情况下都希望找到相同叙述，直接copy。实际上，在此情况下保留文本自身的文本元素也融入了客户的所要达到的目的之中。对于有些法律文本，自身非常拮据拗牙，但我们依然最好按照它的结构去译，虽然译本会同样难懂，但这就是它本身的特点，会保留它的严谨。我们最好不要根据自己的想当然去理解，然后paraphrase  ，因为你可能paraphrase出了原句不包含的内容，或没paraphrase全原句所有内容，或甚至paraphrase错误（实际上，我认为，法律文本自身可解读性很强，很多时候，不同律师都会对一条法则于自身利益做微妙的不同解释，我们若据己paraphrase出，就没有回旋和再解读的空间了）。对于我所做的ＤＨＬ新闻稿而言，目的是宣传美化客户，可以自己润色相关词汇。

上面扯远了，那天开会，针对那次听译，circle强调，做翻译时很重要的一点就是，在开始翻之前，要想一想客户要达到什么目的，主要目的和次要目的各是什么，他说的每段话是如何为目的服务的。然后，在自己看英文文本时，不停的想，如果是我要达到这个目的，我会怎么说，之后再以自己看到的英文为参考，来帮自己完成任务。

后面，circle又谈到了一点，即由于这次译的是一个口头上的内容，所以我们要主动的去掌握它的意思。我认为circle说的这一点是是非常重要的，其实我们每一次翻译都应当要主动的去掌握撰文者要表达的意思，只不过平时如果不这么做，不会像这次那么窘迫，不会把问题暴露出来而已。我们如果做到了这一点，那么就可以把很多隐晦和隐藏的意思spot出来，像circle说的那样，把between the line的意思译出来，这就提高自己的翻译质量，尽量少的出现理解失误。

很多译员翻译速度很慢，circle认为，这与他们的approach有关，翻译时不要被英文单词主宰，要抛开它们，先在自己脑子想，如果自己要讲中文的话，会怎么表达这个意思，然后在脑子里组织好中文的句子结构，用最自然的结构去表达，再把那些英文单词放在已组织好的结构里面，最后把英文单词的中文译词润色加工为相对比较文雅的字词。

对译者知识面的问题，circle认为，为什么我们需要那么多的知识面，因为这样才可以预测到客户面什么样的问题，才可以知道客户要用给我们翻的东西去解决什么问题，如果译者不知道客户的问题，那就很难明白他为什么会这样做。

我想如果我们预测到了客户的问题，就可以顺着客户的思路走，更深入的理解要翻的内容，从而帮助实现客户的目的。

Circleh还谈了很多关于这次schroderAS翻译的具体对策，有兴趣的话可以去听相关会议录音。

自身的实践经验不足，所述有些内容也许有点理论化，不正确之处望指出，有则改之，无则加冕。

以下是对这次翻译的简要分析（注之后的内容，即蓝色内容）：

Slide 13:
You have the main definition of our fund and, as I was saying, the philosophy of the gold and metal fund, it’s similar to our AS commodities fund, and our AS agriculture fund .
13页
你可以看到我们这个黄金及金属基金的主要目标及投资哲学。其中，与我们的施罗德商品及农业基金都有不少共通之处。
注：definition在此处翻成了目标而不是定义，你去查字典是不会查到把definition有目标的意思的，我想此处没有把它按字面意思译成定义，是因为“你可以看到我们这个黄金及金属基金的主要定义及投资哲学”意思不够直接，客户目的是直截了当的让受众了解他的意思的 ，而不是让受众大脑拐一下弯才知道客户的意思，故根据context（reference）和客户要表达的意思和目的，译为目标，这也告诉我们翻译是不要拘泥于单词。

Different from other fund out there, we mostly invest in the commodities Future, Swap and ETF markets. We can selectively invest in equities up to 25%, but as they have said most of the exposure to the commodities is going to be to the Future, Swap and ETF markets directly into the commodity, and that is different from the typical equity fund.

与其他基金不同，我们只会投资于有关商品的期货、商品互换 及交易所交易基金。与其他一般的股票型基金最大的不同在于，本基金投资于相关股票的资产不会超过25%。我们主要对相关商品的投资主要为有关的期货，商品互换及交易所相关基金。
注: “we mostly invest in the commodities Future” 中mostly译为“只会”，比字面意思“大多数“，程度更深，强调意味更浓，更强烈的表达了schroderAS基金与其他基金不同的意思，符合客户的意愿。
 
 
Also, we are a long only fund. We don’t use leverage. We really like gold and metal for the long run, so we are going to have a long only strategy.

同时，我们主动进行资产配置，这一点也是我们与其他指数型基金的不同之处。此外，我们是一个只会做长仓的基金，不会进行杠杆投资。由于我们深信黄金及金属有长远的投资价值，因此，我们采用只会持有黄金及金属相关资产的长仓的投资策略，
注：加译了“同时，我们主动进行资产配置，这一点也是我们与其他指数型基金的不同之处。”一句，起到了强调客户想要表达内容的作用，能做这一增译并不简单，因为这要求译者对文本内容要有相当的了解且揣摩透了客户的想要表达什么，并不是想加什么就加什么的。“really like”译为“深信”不拘泥于字面，强调意味更浓。

And we want to reduce our risk through a diversification policy, we are looking right now at 25 metals to invest in, and we expect reasonable volatility between 12-15%. The liquidity is going to be good since it is an open ended fund that allows buy and sell daily.

为了降低风险，我们采取分散的投资策略。目前，我们考虑投资的金属有25种，而我们接受一个合理的波动性为12-15%。　我们是一个开放性基金，投资者可以每天进行买卖，流通性十分理想。
注：“expect ” ——“接受”， 不拘泥于字面。“good ”——“理想”（“中文译词润色加工为相对比较文雅的字词”） 。

Slide 14
Now, if you could go to Slide 14, this is showing some of the products that are on our benchmark. It's going to be 75% the Metals Index, and 25% the Gold Index. 
14页
在第14页，介绍我们基准的相关产品，我们的金属回报指数为75%，黄金回报指数为25％。
The current numbers really have a preference towards gold, we have a preference to gold, so include some gold into our number. We want to outperform our benchmark by 3%.
从目前的数字显示，黄金有其特别的投资价值。我们特别喜欢黄金这种投资商品，而我们期望本基金的年回报会较我们的基准超出3％。
注：“a preference to”——“特别喜欢”，再次替客户强调


Slide 15
Now turn to slide 15. We have been managing commodity funds with the kind of philosophy I have told you since the end of 2005. Since the launch of our commodity fund, we had outperformed our benchmark. That is one of the reasons why we believe that we can add value to active asset management. Also, in slide 15, you can see that our performance and volatility beat the indexes' shown here.
到15页
在第15页，从2005年底我们推出商品基金开始，我们秉承一贯的投资哲学。而我们的投资成绩一直都较我们的基准领先。也就是基于这个有目共睹的成绩，让我们深信，我们的积极资产管理将能为投资者创造价值。在15页中，可见我们往绩的表现及波动性都远胜我们的基准指数。
注：增译“也就是基于这个有目共睹的成绩”， “自卖自夸,”,为增加客户对其受众的说服力而强调，再次增译。

Slide 18
Once again, it's all about our active management. As you can see over here, we have picked our allocation; wait, let me explain again. This is taking out, the metal section, from our commodity fund. So, if we look how we have invested in metals in our commodity fund, we have metal allocations in base metals and precious metals across time, depending on our views on the different prices of base metals. In the left chart, we can see Schroders' performance of 30.65% since the inception (31.10.05) to March 2008; this is for the metals section within the commodity fund. The performance has been good compared with passive investors
18页
在18页中，显示我们过去的商品基金中金属的表现，从中可以清楚显示我们的积极管理带来的成绩。
大家可以借此了解我们一直如何在商品基金中进行金属投资。我们会根据我们对各种金属的价格走势，前景看法，在不同的时段，对基础金属及贵金属作出不同的投资比重。
在左图，从中可见，施罗德商品基金中的金属部分，从2005年10月31日成立以来，到2008年三月为止的回报率达30.65％，这个投资成绩远胜一般被动的投资者。
注：“Once again, it's all about our active management.”—— “大家可以借此了解我们一直如何在商品基金中进行金属投资。”典型的体现了“翻译时不要被英文单词主宰，要抛开它们，先在自己脑子想，如果自己要讲中文的话，会怎么表达这个意思，然后在脑子里组织好中文的句子结构，用最自然的结构去表达”。减译“ As you can see over here, we have picked our allocation; wait, let me explain again. This is taking out, the metal section, from our commodity fund.”一句，非核心issue，译出显累赘，降低整段的关联度。“远胜”。

 Slide 19
On Page 19, I think this is the strongest selling point of our fund. For an investor, it's the strongest point. It is the correlation of these funds with other asset classes. If you come here, our fund is more correlated to the gold and copper directly than metals, and we are less correlated to the equities. Of course, we have negative correlation with real estates.
在19页，你会发现我们这个基金最大的优点。对投资者而言，我们最大的好处在于跟其他资产的相关性。从这图表中会发现，我们金属基金与黄金及铜等金属的价格走势有密切的相关性，但与股市走势却没有多少相关性。而幸运的是，我们与房地产价格的走势更是相反。
注：“negative”—— “更是相反”，强调。

On the right side is, you can see from this table, this is a typical metal and mining equity fund. As you can see, it is much more related to the equity and not so related to the pure metals. Investors that haven't had exposure to commodities, well given our views in commodities, they should have some exposure to commodities. If they want to have exposure to commodities but only to equity, we recommend that they diversify out of that exposure and invest into our fund, because it provides more correlation to the metals than equities.
在右边的图表中显示一个典型的金属及矿业股票基金。从中可见，它的表现跟股市密切相关，但是，却不能紧贴纯金属价格的走势。在这种基金下，投资者并没有拥有商品。在投资者希望看好有关商品的情况下，其实他们是希望投资有关的商品，但是，事实却是事与愿违。所以，对于那些希望投资于商品，但其实，却只购买有关股份的投资者来说，我们建议他们投资于我们的基金，以分散投资。因为，我们基金的表现紧贴金属价格的走势。但是，与股市的走势却没有什么关连。

Given the recent development of the equity market, and the contraction in the bond market. The commodities are good investment, and we want to trade. And in the typical metal and mining equity funds, I'm an equity analyst, every time I look at a commodity, actually, I try to think if, that equity, whether it is going to outperform the commodity or not. Well, lately I have found it difficult to find equities that outperform the commodities. And there is a good reason for that.
最近，股票市场蓬勃发展，而债券市场则面对收缩的情况。商品类资产正是理想的投资目标。但是，怎样进行投资？可以投资在金属及矿产类基金吗？
我不是股票分析员，但是，当我去分析一个金属及矿产类股票基金时，我总会问一个问题， 这个基金的表现，可以超越相关的商品价格走势吗？
经过长时间的研究，我发现答案是否定的。而理由也十分简单。
注：“但是，怎样进行投资？可以投资在金属及矿产类基金吗？”，自问自答式译法，设身处地为客户受众着想，并解疑，巧妙替客户的达到了促销的目的。“I’m an equity analyst ”—— “我不是股票分析员 ”。“ found it difficult to” —— ??“答案是否定的”,译文比原文更直截了当和干脆的否定了基金的表现可以超越相关的商品价格走势的可能性，帮助了客户。“that equity,whether it is”不译为股票，而是指上文的equity fund，即股票基金，要通过context翻译。

Many of these companies are dealing with old assets, so declining production. Increasing costs are amazing; many companies are facing inflation of 15%, at least. And they are failing on their exploration effort trying to find new deposits. So, many times, even though the commodities are going up, the equities are not fully reflected in this.
大部分的这些资源股的资产都是一些老矿场，都在面对生产下降、成本上升等问题。很多矿业公司的生产成本都以起码15% 的幅度上升。虽然，他们致力去开发新的矿藏，但是，不少都是无功而还。所以，我们经常会发现，在相关商品价格上升的同时，资源股的股价却未能反映相关商品价格的走势。
Slide 21 
Going to the process, if you are familiar with a Schroder Commodity Agricultural Fund , we gonna have a similar process with the Gold and Metal Funds. 
如果你对施罗德商品、农业基金有了解，你就会发现，我们的黄金及金属基金的投资过程跟我们的商品、农业基金十分相似。
This is actually my team, and the head is Geoff Blanning, who is also the head of Emerging Market Debt, and we ask for his input a lot, particularly because he has a very good insight on macro, inflation and currencies. Then, Rob Howell is the current group portfolio manager of the commodity fund, and we manage commodities and the gold and metal fund together. And, we have the support of quantitative and technical research, the risk management team, product management and implementation cash management.
在这一页，是有关我们团队的介绍。我们的主管Geoff Blanning同时也是新兴市场债务组的主管。在投资过程中，他向我们提出不少真知卓见， 特别是他对宏观经济、通胀及货币汇率都有独特的见解。在分析过程中，我们都以此作为我们研究的基石。Rob Howell 是目前商品基金的小组投资项目负责人，我们会一起分析商品、黄金及金属走势，作出投资决定。同时，我们还获得各部门，包括定量及技术研究、风险管理、产品管理及执行现金管理等小组的支持。
注：“在分析过程中，我们都以此作为我们研究的基石”
 
9:57
 Slide 22
If you could please go to Page 22. The way we invest in commodities is fundamental driven. We perform research on every single metal, a demand/supply and inventory analysis; this makes 80-90% of our decisions. Then, we will perform our quantitative risk analysis to find bad entry points and apply stop losses, to increase our investment position or not depending on the timing of the commodity. I really want to stress the base metal has volatility, I would say between 20-30%. Actually, the gold volatility is around 10%, so with the gold exposure we reduce the volatility of the fund as a whole. And, it is also a way to reduce risk? and stop losses.
我们在商品市场进行投资时，我们80% 的投资决定是基于对基本因素的分析。我们会仔细的对每种金属进行需求与供应以及存货分析。
然后，我们会进行定量及市场情绪分析，以找出最佳的入市点，以及在什么时候需要进行止蚀，以改善我们的投资回报，以确保，即使相关商品的价格走势欠佳，也不会对我们的基金回报有负面的影响。
大家需要明白，基础金属的波动幅度较高，大约在22-30%之间。幸好，黄金价格的波动率只有10%，因此，对黄金作出投资，将有助将整个基金的波动率降低。同时，有助我们降低风险及作出止蚀。
注：“The way we invest in commodities is fundamental driven. We perform research on every single metal, a demand/supply and inventory analysis; this makes 80-90% of our decisions.” ——“我们在商品市场进行投资时，我们80% 的投资决定是基于对基本因素的分析。我们会仔细的对每种金属进行需求与供应以及存货分析。”， 句式结构调整，80-90% 改为80% ，“翻译时不要被英文单词主宰，要抛开它们，先在自己脑子想，如果自己要讲中文的话，会怎么表达这个意思，然后在脑子里组织好中文的句子结构，用最自然的结构去表达”。

Slide 28
Now, we can move to Page 28. One of the other benefits of an active investment over a passive investment is that we invest in different kinds of future curve. This is aluminum contract for 3 months and December 2010; as you can see, the longer-term had a better performance than the shorter-term contract. So, in this case, we position ourselves on the longer term of the curve. And, we think about this when we first make the decision about whether we like the commodity or not, and then we find the best vehicle to access that commodity, whether it is futures in this case, basic metals, ETFs,? and , in case of? equities, we give up exposure to some metals that have not got a futures market.

我们的积极投资政策与被动投资相比的另一优点在于，我们可以进行各种期货投资。在这里显示分别为三个月及2010年12月到期的铝期货合约。可以看出，年期越长，则投资回报越理想。因此，我们会尽量投资于远期合约，从而获得一个更理想的回报。
注：“从而获得一个更理想的回报”把“And, we think about this when we first make the decision about whether we like the commodity or not, and then we find the best vehicle to access that commodity, whether it is futures in this case, basic metals, ETFs,? and , in case of? equities, we give up exposure to some metals that have not got a futures market.”全部替代。

Slide 29
On Page 29, I think it's a good summary of the basis of our fund. Our exposure of precious metals will be a minimum of 25% and a maximum of 75%. Out of this, Gold will range from 20% to 75%. The base metals will range from 25% to 75%. A rough estimate would be 50% precious metal and 50% base metal. Also, there could be up to 25% on Equity and 33% on cash. (13:09)
这里，正是对我们的基金的一个总结。我们对贵金属的投资，最低为25%， 最高为75%， 其中，黄金的比例将为20-70%。基础金属的比例将从25-75% 不等。一个粗略的估计，50% 为贵金属，50% 为基础金属。当中，也可能有25% 为股票，33%为现金。
注：不知为何把“20% to 75%”译为“20-70%”，reference中也是“20% to 75%”

Slide 4
Go to Page 4. We talk about the current market condition, which are very similar to what happened in 1970s when the Central Bank was printing a lot of money.? and the impact on inflation and on the currency.? Looking at the graph on the right, the blue line is the real interest rate,? Now we have negative real interest rate, which is similar to what happened in 1975. So what happened to commodities in the 1970s when we were practically in the same market conditions?  ( The point is, Gold price increased when real interest rate is negative)
在第4页，我们介绍目前的市场情况，我们认为与上世纪70年代，中央银行大量发行钞票，从而引起通胀及货币贬值的情况十分相像。从右图可见，蓝线代表真正的利率。目前，我们正面对负利率，也正是与1975年的情况相似。借古鉴今， 当我们今天重新面对70 年代当年同样的情况， 由于负利率让金价大幅上扬的情况，到底，当时的商品价格对我们今天有什么启示？

Slide 8
Go to Page 8. The graph shows the price of gold from 1970 to 1983, comparing it with oil price. In 1970, the price of gold was similar to other commodities. At this time, people started to get scared about inflation, so they thought, ok, I have better buy gold and oil. Three months ago at a meeting, we were talking about commodity prices and we were surprised that people were not talking about inflation.
在第8页，此图显示从1980-83 年期间，黄金的价格与石油价格的对比。在1970年，黄金的价格与其他商品相近，从这时候开始，人们开始忧虑通胀，然后，他们想， 那不如我去购买黄金和石油吧。在三个月前的一次会议上，当我们讨论商品价格时，我们很意外地大家对通胀问题不大关心。
注: “1970 to 1983”为何成了“1980-83”

Actually since that meeting, we have seen an increasing number of headlines about inflation. As you can see in the graph, the gold price went up by 2300%.? Actually now,?? gold prices have only gone up from US$250 to US$900 since 2002 to nowadays.
然后从那次会议后我们发现报纸的头条不停的提到有关通胀问题。从图中可见，金价已经上升了2300%。 从2002 年到今天，其实，金价已经从250美元飙升到现在的900美元。
So, we think ( the gold price increase) is just starting.? There has been a lot of talk about stopping inflation by raising interest rates, however, we haven’t seen much done yet. The Central Bank cares about the financial markets and is afraid of a significant economic slowdown, so even if the Fed is thinking of raising the interest rate, from 3.5% negative real interest rate, to a level to have an impact on inflation, we are still a long way from that level. Volcher really cared about inflation, so he raised the interest rate to 15%. We don’t think the Bernanke ( The current Feb Chairman) will be as agressive as Volcher was, far from it. Inflation is here to stay, at least for the next 2-5 years. 
所以，我们认为金价的飙升目前只是一个开始而已。目前，社会上，有不少人提到通过加息以压抑通胀，但是，到现在为止，我们还是没有看见什么成效。中央银行忧虑金融市场的发展，担心会造成经济放缓，因此，虽然联储局是有意从现在实际负利率3.5%的基础上加息，以压抑通胀，但是，距离我们可以真的控制通胀，还有漫漫长路。当年的联储局主席Volcher 是有决心要控制通胀，所以，当年，他把利率上调到15%。 但是，我们认为，今天的联储局主席伯南克，绝对不会像Volcher般采取如此激烈的政策，因此，我们预计，在未来2-5 年内，我们仍然要面对高通胀的情况。
Slide 9 
We see the purchasing power of gold vs oil. I've shown you before (graph) how both the gold and oil prices vary. We think that (increase in ) gold price is going to catch up with the oil price; that's another specific point about gold.
第9页，
从中可见黄金与石油购买力的比较。在前面，我们见过，黄金及石油的价格差异。我们认为，黄金将会追上石油价格的升幅。 这是我们对金价的一个重要看法。
Slide 5
Now, we move to Page 5. This is the purchasing power of gold in different currencies. As we all know, the US currency is depreciated, among many currencies. Actually, we find that gold has been the best currency out there. The Central Bank has printed money, but they cannot print gold.? Producing gold has become more difficult and more expensive; I will talk about that soon.
第五页
这图显示在不同货币下，黄金的购买力。众所周知，美元兑各主要货币都在贬值。事实上，我们认为，黄金是目前市场上最好的货币。因为，中央银行可以不停印发钞票，但是，他们却不可以印刷黄金。因此，要进一步生产黄金，将变得越来越难及昂贵。我将会在下面进一步解释。
注：看了reference就会发现“many currencies”指的是一些重要货币即“各主要货币”，因此翻译时要会利用手头资料，增加对文本的理解
。
Slide 6
We can now go to Page 6. So, there are many reasons why you should be including gold in your portfolio. I am so surprised that private holdings for investment in gold is only like 15% of the gold demand. Well, a big part of that is jewelry. Well, the global equity markets and the global bond markets are quite big. So, we need to be patient. When different invetors invest in gold, at the market price now, that means only 1 thing: gold prices have to go up.
第6页
其实，有很多理由解释，为什么你应该在投资组合中包括黄金。我很奇怪发现，在黄金的需求中私人投资所占的比重只有15%。其中，有相当部分还是以珠宝的方式持有。不过，国际股票市场及债券市场规模庞大。所以，我们必须有耐心。当不同的投资者开始在现水平投资黄金，那我们只能得出一个结论，就是，黄金的价格一定会上升。
Slide 7
So now we go to Page 7. Fortunately, the World's Gold Consul has given out a great tool to easily invest in gold; it is the ETF, and how investment had been growing via ETF, it will be the main driver of gold demand and we think it will continue to be.
第7页，
幸好，我们现在已经有一个理想投资于黄金的工具，就是交易所交易基金。目前，透过黄金交易所交易基金所进行的投资正大幅增加，而这个正是让黄金需求不断上升的主要动力，而我们相信这个趋势正方兴未艾。

Slide 11
And then, Page 11. This is another potential demand driver that we think it should happen sometime. The small pie chart represents the central banks of most developed countries, while the big pie represents the rest of the world. The Central Banks of the developed countries are supposed to sell some of their gold holdings through the Washington Agreement.? Actually, they are selling less than they should.
第11页
我们相信这是在可见的未来导致需求上升的另一增长动力。小饼图上代表大部分已发展国家的中央银行，而大饼图上代表其他地方的中央银行。根据华盛顿协议，已发展国家的中央银行是应该要出售他们一部分的黄金储备。但事实上，他们实际出售的比例较他们应该要出售的为少。
注：“developed countries” 内地的一般译法为“发达国家”

There is likely a good reason for this. Other central banks should be buying gold for their return, but they hadn’t until recently.? The Russian and Argentinain Central Banks have been slowly buying some gold. This could drive up the demand for gold.
理由很简单，其他中央银行是应该要购买这些黄金的，但是，在过去他们一直没有行动。截到最近，俄罗斯及阿根廷的中央银行到最近才开始慢慢吸纳黄金。而这些趋势将导致黄金需求有所上升。
Slide 10
Page 10. The supply of gold comes from mines, from scraps, and then some selling from central banks, but not much. The gold coming from mines is globally stably declining year after year. What is happening is that the main producers that have to do scraps are producing less and less each year because exploration has not been successful. It is quite expensive; today, to bring a new mine on land and make some profit, you need a gold price of at least 700 USD per ounce. Today, the gold price is only at USD900, so we see very small margins after subtracting costs, so there is very little downside ( that producers are not able to lower price). (22:28) The producers are not able to increase supply. There is some supply coming from China and Russia but it is not enough to compensate for the decline. That’s our gold story.
第10页
我们对黄金的看法就是，黄金的供应不能追上需求的上升。原因在于，黄金的供应只有几个途径，包括采矿，废铁中提炼，以及中央银行出售黄金等。从全球各地矿厂出产的黄金的供应在逐年减少。同时，从废铁中提炼的黄金的数量也在逐年减少。至于开发新矿场，由于开采困难，而且成本高昂。如果要开采一个新矿场，并要从中取利，起码金价要达到每安士700美元。 今天，黄金的价格也只是900美元，因此，在扣除成本后利润率相当低。由于生产商无法降低成本，从而增加供应，因此，黄金价格下调的机会什低，虽然，目前中国及俄罗斯方面可能会增加出售黄金，但是，相信也不足以导致黄金价格下降。
注：翻译时，整段的结构做了很大的调整，体现了“翻译时不要被英文单词主宰，要抛开它们，先在自己脑子想，如果自己要讲中文的话，会怎么表达这个意思，然后在脑子里组织好中文的句子结构，用最自然的结构去表达，再把那些英文单词放在已组织好的结构里面”。

Slide 23
I will now show you the graph on Page 23. This is the seasonality of gold prices. You can notice that most of the gold price goes down and then goes up in the 3rd and 4th quarters . It goes up from September onwards because you have the wedding season in India and people buying gifts in the Xmas. About ( gold demand) 50% goes into jewelry, at least half of which is consumed by Indians. Some investors who know about this, so they will make sure to take advantage of the seasonality by investing in the 3rd or 4th quarter of the year. (24:00)
第23 页
这是有关黄金价格的季节性变动。你会发现，大部分黄金价格都会在年头下降，然后在第3及4 季度开始上升。原因在于，从9月份开始，进入印度的结婚旺季，同时，人们开始圣诞节购买礼物， 其中，50% 对黄金的需求是属于珠宝类别， 其中，又有一般由印度人购买。认识这个趋势的投资者，就会利用这个季节的差价，而在每年的第3及4 季度投资获利。
注：“一半”而不是“一般”
Slide 31
Why we like metals as well:
Please go to Page 31. One of the main demand drivers of base metals is infrastructure pending. A lot of infrastructure demand happens in Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. Some of the major countries demanding base metals are going through the same urbanisation process as countries such as the United States and Japan have done in the past. This development is increasing the demand for metals. It means railways, roads, electric and power stations.
第31页
为什么我们也喜欢金属呢？
导致基础金属需求上升的一个主因就是对基础设施的投入。目前，在亚洲、东欧及拉丁美洲的基础建设发展一日千里。不少对基础金属有大量需求的国家正经历城市化过程，正如美国及日本当年所经历一样。正是由于他们大量兴建铁路、公路、电气化及发电站等趋势，导致对金属的需求大量上升。
Slide 36
Another important driver of demand is consumption. If we go to Page 36, we see that 80% of the demand for lead comes from auto producers, because the battery in the auto and car manufacturing use a lot of lead. We can see this in Chinese auto production.
第36页
导致需求上升的另一主要因素就是消费。在这一页，我们可见80%对铅的需求源于汽车生产商，因为，在汽车电池及汽车生产过程中都需要使用大量铅。从中国的汽车生产中可见一斑。
Slide 27
If we go to the next slide (Page 37), we can see something similar, showing the rising demand for vehicles in India and Indonesia . This is also a big driver of demand.
第37页
在37 页，我们可见在印度及印尼的汽车需求也在不断上升，这个也是导致需求上升的主因。
Slide 38
If we go to Page 38, at the left your have the total demand for lead. There are also data for other metals, such as copper, in the handout. Inventory levels are historically low level. In commodities, when we see extremely low levels of inventory, healthy demand, and supply that can not catch up, what happens is an exponential kind of growth. This applies to commodities like gold. We expect similar kind of trends in other commodities.
第38 页
在这一页，你会发现左面代表对铅的总需求。同时，还有对其他金属， 如铜的需求。从中可见，目前的库存量都是处于历史低位。在商品市场中，如果我们发现其存货处于偏低水平，是代表由于需求上升，导致供不应求，所以正是一个大幅飞升的增长趋势。我们在其他商品，如黄金及其他商品上都可以发现类似的趋势。
注：“healthy demand”——“需求上升”，中文中很少有“健康的需求的说法”，要根据意思用自然的中文表达出来。“我们在其他商品，如黄金及其他商品上都可以发现类似的趋势”中“其他商品”一次不必要的重复，中文没组织好。

But I ask myself: how could it be, with current commodity prices, that people are not producing a lot? We haven't seen the supply response you would expect in every market, solid production. The problem is that to extract (metals) from the ground is very, very hard.
但我也会问自己，为什么，随着目前的商品价格不停上升，为什么人们没有增加供应，就像我们在其他产品市场中一样，随着价格上升，供应业随之增加？ 问题是，要从地底开采金属绝非易事。
注：此段原文本中并无告知“价格上升”，能增译出这一点，要对通篇文章的理解和对相关知识的熟悉。

Slide 35
Let's look at Page 35. If we do our drilling in this floor and find copper, and we decide that we want to have a copper mine in this room, it would us from 7 to 10 years to bring the production online. It's very hard; you have exploration, possibility and feasibility studies, and then the production starts. Once you decided to carry it out, you have to hire contractors and constructors; it will take us 2 years until someone gets the stuff and starts doing anything. The reason is that miners are driven by supply, not by demand like in the graph that I showed you. So, there's no way we are going to have supply response for a commodity. It's not that we're running out of the commodity; there's enough beef out there, there's enough things out there, but I think that copper is very, very hard. In the case of aluminium, costs are going up a lot. Aluminium takes a lot of energy, and we know about the energy constraints occurring throughout the world. So, it's not easy.
就是，我们发现现在我们这个房间的地下有一个铜矿，我们觉得要进行开采，而且确实找到铜。但是，我们仍需要等待7-10年才可以开始投产。因为，这是绝不简单。首先，你需要进行勘探、进行可行性研究，然后，才可以开始进行生产。到你，真的决定开采，你需要聘请承建商及建筑商，起码又要等两年才可以开始开采。
所以，矿产的一个特点是，主要取决于供应， 而非我们可见的需求。所以，我们不能说，某某商品对于商品价格，而导致供应增加。我们不是说，我们的商品资源已经枯竭，其实，我们还有丰富的矿藏，但是，我们就是不能让它的供应在短期内增加。在铝的情况也一样， 它的价格也是在飙升。众所周知，在生产铝的过程中需要耗用大量能源，而现在全球都在面对能源问题，因此，一切都不容易。
注：“but I think that copper is very, very hard”非核心内容，未译。

A US mining company they use huge trucks with huge tires. The price of these tires was about $55,000 to $100,000 and they need to replace it from time to time. Replacement takes 3 months. You can buy the tyres in the black market at 3 times the price. I think this shows how desperate people are to get materials to produce in the mines and how difficult it is to do it.
要说明这个问题的例子之一是，一间美国矿业公司所使用的大货车需要一种大轮胎，这种轮胎的价格由55,000? 到 100，000 美元，他们需要不时进行更换。但是，订货需要等待3个月，如果，你在黑市市场购买，则要付出3倍的价格。我想，这个例子可以说明，矿场里，人们是如何焦急地希望购买生产材料以进行生产，而当中涉及多少困难、挑战。
Slide 42 and 43
Now to wrap it up. Page 42 and 43. I just wanted to show you some examples of how we wouldn't use equity. This is International Ferro Metals, it's a provider of chrome. Chrome is a great story. Chrome producers come make a difference. 
我想用在42 及43页作出总结，我想向你介绍，我们如何不利用股票市场作投资。国际铁金属公司主要生产铬。铬是一个很好的例子说明，金属价格可以如何在短期内飙升。铬的生产商可以如何扭转乾坤。
注：“铬是一个很好的例子说明 ”，那到底说明了什么呢，增译的 “金属价格可以如何在短期内飙升“，让客户的受众直截了当的知道了投资铬的好处。
Slide 44
And to finish, I would like to show you Page 44. This was done a little while ago. We like good, platinum, copper, tin.? We have the flexibility to invest in what we think is a bull market. An excellent protection to inflation and an excellent vehicle to take advantage in gold and emerging markets, and the low inventories of other metals.? I think that is all for my time, I will be very happy to answer all the questions you have.
最后，我想展示不久前所做的图表，我们喜欢黄金、铂、铜及锡。我们这个基金在牛市中，有绝对的自由度去进行投资。这是对抗通胀的最佳保障，同时，也是，掌握黄金及新兴市场上升，及其他金属低库存等机会的最佳投资工具。